We placed our first trade in over a month today.

We sat patiently on the sidelines all of July, waiting for the environment to improve. No forcing trades. No catching falling knives.

That is the entire game in a hard penny environment. As I have talked about before, there are times to make money, and times to not lose money. July was a time to not lose money, and we sidestepped the chaos by staying disciplined and letting the market come to us.

In the last couple days, it finally did.

First, let’s take a look at the broader market. 👇

SPX

The S&P 500 closed at fresh all-time highs today. Both of my EMA triggers have now fired on the SPX. 👇

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Last week was a wild one, and it had 2 completely different halves.

The first half saw more carnage in the AI trade. The SOX crashed all the way down to a $10,447 close on Wednesday (-29% off ATHs), undercutting my $10.6k target to the downside.

The second half of the week saw the biggest bounce in months. On Thursday, the Nasdaq surged +2.8%, its best day since June. Semis exploded, with the SOX up +8.2%. The Tech bounce carried over into Friday.

On Thursday night, I asked the question everybody’s still asking this weekend.

Have we bottomed?

Here’s what I’m seeing right now. 👇

Monthly Charts

Let’s start with the big picture.

Monthly charts are my #1 favorite way to cut through all the noise and tell me the big picture of any stock.

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After 2 weeks of getting run over, buyers finally showed up today.

And they showed up in a big way‼️

US stocks ripped higher on Thursday. The Nasdaq surged +2.8%, its best day since June, snapping a 6-day losing streak. The S&P 500 gained +1.7%.

But the real fireworks were in the exact part of the market that’s been beaten down the most. Semis and AI.

Semis exploded, with the SOX up +8.2%. Micron ripped +18%. AMD and Intel both jumped +13%. And the Momentum trade, which had been left for dead (down -42% from highs), came roaring back to life today.

Microsoft was the engine, up +16% after a blowout Azure quarter (more on that later).

So after a brutal drawdown, buyers finally stepped in.

And now everyone is asking the same question. 👇

Did we just bottom?

We Gave You the Key Level

Before I give you my take, let’s talk about how we got here.

On July 7th, with the SOX trading at ~$12.3k, I called for a -14% downside move to $10.6k. That was my first key support level, and my first downside target.

It wasn’t a random number. $10.6k was the middle of the weekly Bollinger Band, and it’s the same support level we bottomed from during the October 2025 and March 2026 corrections.

The SOX closed yesterday at $10,447, slicing right through the floor of my key support level. That’s a move of more than -14% from my call, and it actually overshot my downside target to the low side.

We gave you the key support level to watch. Now the SOX has tagged it, overshot it, and bounced violently back above it.

So there is 1 question at the top of everyone’s mind tonight. 👇

Did we just bottom?

We already know what the crowd who’s been calling the bottom every day for the last month is going to say.

But that’s not me. Here’s my balanced take. 👇

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When it rains, it pours.

The selling pressure is starting to accelerate this week.

It started overnight in Korea, where the KOSPI crashed -11% in a single session. Samsung fell -13% and SK Hynix fell -15%.

Then the US opened, and it was another bloodbath for AI stocks today.

Semis fell -4.5% on the day. At its lows, SOX traded down to $10,799.

That was my first downside target. 🎯🎯🎯

I called for a SOX move down to $10.6k-$10.8k ~3 weeks ago (7/7) in “Chip Wrecked” (-11% ago).

Today, we tagged my $10.8k target (at lows).

We’ve compiled all the evidence for you here at Marlin Capital.

Week after week, we have given it to you straight.

We told you last Tuesday’s bounce was NOT a buy, and NOT a reason to get bullish.

We called the downside move in the SOX to $10.6k-$10.8k weeks ago. ✅

Both aged like fine wine on a summer’s night.

So what’s next?

You’re not going to want to miss this.

Here’s my detailed analysis and view. 👇

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US stocks head into this week with the same split personality they’ve carried for a month and a half now. The S&P 500 is holding up just fine. But almost nothing underneath it is.

The SPX closed Friday still only ~2.7% off its all-time high. On the surface, it’s just a small little blip. But anything levered to AI got smoked again to close last week.

We got a HUGE bounce last Tuesday, but as I talked about in “Rare Air”, this type of bounce is actually a bearish signal historically. So too is the incredible day-to-day volatility we are seeing in SOX, which I covered in “Moment of Truth”.

And here’s a new stat that captures this market environment better than any right now. The average stock’s realized volatility versus the SPX just pushed to record highs.

That is the tape we’re dealing with underneath the hood, no matter how quiet the SPX looks on the surface.

The index is calm. Individual stocks are NOT.

Still No New Buys

Here at Marlin Capital, we haven’t had a single new buy in all of July.

Plenty of people have been buying AI names the entire way down, adding on every dip, sure they’ve finally caught “the bottom”. A lot of them are trapped now, sitting in red and hoping/praying.

We’re not. We’ve said for a month now that it’s still too early to buy this dip, and nothing about the tape has changed my mind.

So what’s next, where are my downside targets, and where would I BEGIN to think about buying the dip on AI stocks?

All that and more below. 👇

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US stocks stalled on Wednesday after a big 2-day bounce. The S&P 500 finished -0.1% and the Nasdaq -0.6%, giving back a piece of Tuesday’s rally.

The bigger story this week was Tuesday’s massive bounce.

After Semis officially entered a Bear Market on Friday, the tape came roaring back. SOX surged over +5% yesterday. Memory led the charge (MU +12%, SNDK +14%, WDC +13%) on a TSM price hike report and a wave of analyst upgrades. Korean markets confirmed it, with the KOSPI finishing +6%.

The SOX has now climbed back above my key $12k support level, closing today at $12.4k.

So the bulls got their bounce. The question now is whether it means anything.

Today, oil did the damage. Brent jumped ~3.4% to over $94 (its highest in more than a month) after another round of US strikes on Iran. Rising oil and rising yields remain a headwind this whole environment has had to fight.

Meanwhile, the leadership underneath the bounce is still telling. GEV reported a strong quarter today ($11.1B in revenue, a $176B backlog) and finished down more than -8%.

The Reaction Is the Tell

As I laid out in “Body of Evidence” on Sunday, my Q2 earnings framework hasn’t changed. We know the numbers are going to be good. They have been. But the reaction to the numbers is the real tell. And so far, earnings reactions have been mixed at best.

And after the bell tonight, we got the 2 biggest tests yet. GOOGL and TSLA both reported.

I’ll break down exactly what these reports mean for us in a moment, because the read-through for the broader market (and for the AI trade specifically) is what really matters here.

But first, I want to dig deeper into yesterday’s bounce.

Because I ran the numbers on Tuesday’s HUGE momentum surge, and what I found is fascinating.

Yesterday was one of the rarest up days in High Beta Momentum in the last 27 years. It has only happened a handful of times since 1999. And when you look at exactly when those days occurred, the picture gets very interesting.

Yesterday Was Historic

Yesterday, High Beta Momentum finished up +9%.

That is an enormous 1-day move. So I went back and studied it. 👇

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Last week was another ugly one for US stocks. The S&P 500 finished the week -1.6% and the Nasdaq closed -2.9%. Under the hood, it was worse. The QQQ was -4.2% and Tech (XLK) was -5.5%.

Semis officially entered a Bear Market on Friday.

The SOX closed -20.2% below its June 22nd record high, finishing the week down ~10% and down ~18% on the month. At one point on Friday, the index was down -5.7% intraday before closing -1.6%.

Meanwhile, the leadership was Energy (+4.7%), REITs (+2.2%), and Consumer Staples (+1.3%).

Defensives and Energy. Again.

That’s the same flight to safety I flagged in “Healthy Rotation or Bearish Rotation?”. While most people were calling it a healthy market rotation at the time, we correctly identified it as a “risk off” red flag. Since then, it’s only gotten worse, not better.

This is not a US-only story either. The KOSPI has fallen ~20% from its peak in 2 weeks. The Nikkei has joined it. When multiple major markets across the globe are breaking down at the same time, selling pressure tends to accelerate rather than contain itself.

The Momentum Unwind

High Beta Momentum is now -33% off its all-time highs.

That is the largest Momentum drawdown since the 2022 Bear Market.

The massive volatility inside the factor is even more telling. The Momentum factor’s 3-month realized volatility has surged to its highest level on record outside of 3 recessionary Bear Markets.

The only 3 exceptions in history.

• The Dot Com bust

• The 2008 Global Financial Crisis

• The March 2020 Covid crash

Those are the only 3 periods where Momentum behaved the way it is behaving right now.

Don’t Let the Index Fool You

The S&P 500 is still only ~2% off its all-time high.

But this is not a datapoint that should give anyone comfort.

In fact, that combination is exactly what we saw at the last 2 major market bubble peaks (the Dot Com Bubble & Covid Bubble). 👇

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It was yet another bloodbath in the AI trade today.

You wouldn’t know it from the headline indices. The S&P 500 finished down ~0.5% and is still sitting less than 1% off its all-time high.

But underneath that calm surface, the former leaders got taken apart once again.

The SOX fell -4.3%, continuing its cadence of +/- 3% daily closes nearly every other day for the last month. I talked about what this means in “Moment of Truth”, and it’s NOT bullish.

It’s a market of stocks. And the stocks that led this entire Bull Market are the ones being carried out in body bags.

Most importantly, the SOX finally broke down below my key $12k support level today.

I laid this out in “Drawdowns” on July 5th. 👇

“$12k remains the line in the sand (the 6/9 low) for me. This is looking like a potential head and shoulders top for Semis. A breakdown below $12k would confirm it.”

That’s the line in the sand I’ve been pointing to for weeks.

Then, in “Chip Wrecked” last Tuesday (7/7), I predicted that an oversold bounce was coming, and that it would fail. 👇

We got that exact bounce last week. And it failed, right on cue.

On Sunday, I said to watch this earnings season very closely. We knew the numbers would be good, but that the reaction to the numbers would be the real tell.

So far, so bad.

TSM just posted +77% EPS growth and raised guidance. ASML raised its full-year guidance for the second time this year. Both stocks have had negative/muted post-earnings reactions.

This tells you everything you need to know about the character of this market right now.

The bullish environment we enjoyed in April and May is long gone.

At Marlin Capital, we have been raising cash, hedging, and preparing for more downside for the last few weeks.

Here’s where I see us headed next, and where I’d START seriously looking at dip buys. 👇

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(This portfolio update is available in full to paid subscribers. If you’re not yet a paid subscriber, today’s trades are a good example of the real-time moves we make in these portfolios.)

Here are today’s trades, and where I see the market heading next. 👇

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US stocks bounced and finished higher last week, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both notching weekly gains of more than +1%.

Meta led the way, soaring +15%, its best week since early 2024.

On the surface, that sounds like a good week. Underneath the surface, I am seeing many red flags emerge.

Semis

We got the multi-day bounce in SOX that I called for on Tuesday night.

SOX bounced right off its 60 EMA and the key $12k support level I have been highlighting since early June.

So far, this SOX setup is playing out exactly as I laid out last Tuesday.

But here is what concerns me most about the character of this bounce.

We are currently seeing signs of extreme volatility in Semis. Historically, extreme volatility readings like the ones we are seeing right now are NOT bullish for SOX.

Here’s exactly what the data says. 👇

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Tuesday was another bloodbath for AI stocks.

It started in Korea, with the KOSPI getting crushed another -5% last night after Samsung earnings failed to impress.

That weakness spilled over into the US session with Semis falling -4.7%.

After a brutal stretch like this, the question everyone is asking right now is this…

When will it end?

Here’s my take. 👇

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(This portfolio update is available in full to paid subscribers. If you are not yet a paid subscriber, today’s trades are a good example of the real-time moves we make in this portfolio.)

Here are today’s trades. 👇

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AI stocks got hit hard again last week. Semis took the worst of it (SOX -3.8%), and Friday was an absolute bloodbath.

The selling was global again. The KOSPI got crushed, and the US AI complex got hit right alongside it.

The Momentum Unwind

Momentum got hit the hardest last week. 👇

High Beta Momentum just had its worst 2-day move since Covid, down ~18% on Thursday and Friday alone.

Momentum is now down ~24% from its peak. That’s the worst Momentum selloff since Q1 2023, against an average drawdown of ~12%.

After a brutal ~2 weeks for AI stocks, here’s the question every investor is asking right now. 👇

Has the AI trade topped for the cycle?

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One good thing about this recent market weakness is that it’s brought the true market leaders right to the forefront.

The leaders have pulled back into their key moving averages, where they’re finding support and setting up all over again. And it’s very clearly separated the true leaders from the laggards in a way that makes my next set of moves very clear.

The big picture right now is simple. The leaders are leading. They’ve pulled into key support levels and held. The laggards are doing the opposite, sitting at or below their 200-day moving averages and continuing to struggle.

The way I look at it, there’s no reason to keep any capital tied up in laggards when the best names in the market are pulling back into buyable spots right in front of us.

So that’s exactly what I’m doing today. I’m pulling money out of our portfolio laggards and putting it to work in stronger names.

This morning, I am rotating out of 5 names and into 5 new leaders in the 2026 Portfolio.

(This portfolio update is available in full to paid subscribers. If you are not yet a paid subscriber, today’s moves are a good example of the real-time trades we make in this portfolio.)

Here’s exactly what I’m doing. 👇

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US stocks sold off again last week (SPX -1.9%, NDX -5.6%). The Nasdaq led the way lower, and the Semis took the brunt of it (-7.3%).

The selling was global. Korea got crushed, with the KOSPI finishing -9.4%, one of its worst weeks EVER.

But here is what makes last week most concerning to me. It came on the heels of the best Micron earnings report I have ever seen.

In “Micron Delivers”, I talked about how MU gave us an A++ quarter on Tuesday night. A massive guide, $18B in take-or-pay cash, and the entire Memory Supercycle vindicated. It was the best possible news for the whole Semis group.

And yet, Semis still faded it.

That is the single most important thing that happened last week. In “Micron Delivers”, I told you exactly what the biggest red flag would be. 👇

The Most Important Chart in the Market: Semis

In my view, the SOX is still the most important chart in the market right now.

SOX closed Friday at $13,203, but it closed weak. We got a bearish engulfing candle on the weekly, and we got it on the best possible news.

On the monthly, a potential shooting star topping candle is forming.

On the daily, SOX closed right back at its 21 EMA after failing to reclaim $14k following MU earnings.

But we are still above $12k (the 6/9 low). SOX has not structurally broken yet. As long as that floor holds, this is still just a sharp pullback inside a larger uptrend, and nothing is broken technically.

But most importantly, the overall character has certainly changed. When the strongest group in the market can’t hold a bid on the best earnings report of the cycle, this is a major red flag. It begs the question. 👇

Is the best news already priced in for Semis after a massive run?

The Rotation

Underneath the hood, money is rotating. But it is moving in a direction I don’t love.

Capital is rotating into more defensive sectors. Healthcare (XLV) has been a clear standout this month, up +7.3% in June. Utilities (XLU) are up +4% MTD. Financials (XLF) are up +3.9% in June. Consumer Staples (XLP) are up +2.2% on the month.

At the same time, money is rotating out of the leaders, the Semis and the AI infrastructure names that have carried this entire move. Tech (XLK) is down -5.2% in June (and forming a concerning monthly candle).

So here is the question that matters most right now. 👇

Is this a healthy rotation or a bearish one?

Here’s What History Says

Not all rotations are the same.

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Today was another volatile session for US stocks.

The S&P 500 gave back its early gains to close -0.1%, while the Nasdaq finished -0.4%. Everyone was waiting on the same thing, and that was MU earnings after the bell.

The entire AI complex came into tonight’s MU report bruised and on edge. It started yesterday in Korea. The KOSPI crashed nearly -10%, one of the worst single days in the history of the Korean market. The two giants at the heart of the global memory trade, Samsung and SK Hynix, both fell more than -12%. That selling bled straight into our market and hit the exact names we care about most. Over the last 2 days, the Memory ETF (DRAM) was down -12%, and the SOX was down -8%.

This made MU’s earnings report tonight even more critical. The entire memory and semi complex had just been taken to the woodshed, fear was running high, and everyone was bracing for MU to either stop the bleeding or make it a whole lot worse.

Then the closing bell rang, and MU changed everything.

Micron Delivered An Unbelievable Quarter

The numbers are staggering. Revenue came in at $41.5B, which was a +17% beat. Adjusted EPS was $25.11, a +23% beat. A year ago, this same company earned $1.91 per share. That’s a >12x! Gross margins hit a record ~84.6%, up from 38% a year ago. Are you kidding me!? 🤯

But none of that is the real headline. The real headline is the guide. MU guided next quarter to $50B in revenue, while the Street was looking for ~$43B. They guided EPS to ~$31 against a ~$25 estimate. That isn’t just a casual beat, it’s a massacre.

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Thursday was a big day for US stocks.

The S&P 500 rose +1.1%, the Nasdaq gained +1.9%, and the Russell 2000 climbed +2.1%. This was the “gap and go” day we were looking for.

On Wednesday night, I laid out 2 paths. With the futures market opening strong post-FOMC reversal, I said what really mattered was whether or not we could hold those gains during Thursday’s cash session.

We did not just hold them. We accelerated, and the market closed at highs.

That tells me Wednesday’s post-Fed reversal was the bear trap. And in my view, we are now setting up for another wave higher.

So many stocks look fantastic right now. There is no shortage of bullish setups heading into this week.

We are well positioned across our portfolios. Let’s start with the 2026 Portfolio. 👇

2026 Portfolio

Our 2026 Portfolio is now up +48% YTD.

And we just notched another Marlin Capital multibagger!

WDC

Wow‼️

WDC is officially our 19th Marlin Capital multibagger... in the last 19 months!

We bought WDC on 4/8 at $335. It is now up +123% for us in <3 months‼️

WDC is our 3rd YTD multibagger out of the Memory space, joining SNDK and MU.

Memory was 1 of the 2 leading AI Infrastructure industries we called out early this year. The entire Memory market is being rebuilt around AI, and while bears keep repeating “it’s cyclical”, we have never seen a cycle even remotely comparable to this one.

In 2022, smartphones + PCs were 60% of high-end memory demand. Fickle, seasonal, and inventory-driven.

In 2026, data centers alone are ~70%.

This is NOT the normal consumer inventory cycle of the last 20 years. It's a structural demand shift. Failure to identify this shift is why memory bears have been absolutely decimated this year.

On the other hand, Memory bulls like us have captured breathtaking gains. I think it’s fair to say we have taken full advantage of this INCREDIBLE run in AI Memory stocks.

But WDC is not even the whole story here. 👇

The Terrific 12

Back on 4/8, we bought 12 stocks in a single day.

Since then, 5 of them have hit >100% gains

Are you kidding me!?

It hasn’t even been 3 months yet!

And perhaps most importantly for our newer subscribers is this. 👇

~3 weeks ago, we bought 10 new SMID Cap AI names in a brand new portfolio, built specifically to hunt down the next round of multibaggers (our SMID Cap 10).

3 weeks in, the portfolio is flattish. All 10 names dipped meaningfully during the recent market weakness.

But as I covered in last Sunday’s Portfolio Review, I view each of these dips as healthy pullbacks in the context of larger uptrends. In my view, these dips will prove to be great opportunities. Trust the process.

We are at 19 Marlin Capital multibaggers and counting. Something tells me we are not stopping there.

Can we hit #20? 👇

Long Term Investment Portfolios

2026 Portfolio

SMID Cap 10

Active Trading Portfolio

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US stocks staged a big reversal on Wednesday.

The S&P 500 fell -1.2%, the Nasdaq dropped -1.3%, and the Dow lost -1% after hitting a fresh intraday record high earlier in the session.

For most of the day, it looked like the recovery was going to keep right on going. The market was grinding back toward all-time highs. Then, new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh stepped to the podium for the first time, and the tape rolled over. We closed deep red, near the lows.

The Fed Recap

Today was Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Fed Chair, and it lived up to the hype.

The decision itself was no surprise. The Committee held the fed funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% in a unanimous vote. The futures market came into today already pricing in 1 hike this year, so on paper, the hold was a non event.

The projections are where it got real. Back in March, the median Fed member was penciling in a rate cut for 2026. But now, that has flipped. The median member now sees the fed funds rate ending this year at 3.8%, a quarter point above where we sit now (and up from 3.4% in the March projections). Nine members signaled a hike by year end. The Fed went from projecting a cut to projecting a hike in the span of 3 months. That was the real story of this meeting.

Then came Warsh’s first press conference, and he issued a completely new playbook (a less transparent one). The new Fed Chair slashed the policy statement down to ~130 words (it had been running north of 300), and he scrapped forward guidance entirely, saying it was "not well suited for the current policy conjuncture." He also declined to submit his own rate projection.

And on inflation, he sounded hawkish. President Trump appointed Warsh in the hope he would deliver rate cuts. But if anyone thought the new chair would cave to that pressure and take a hike off the table, he put that idea to bed today. Here is the line that took the market lower. 👇

“The Fed will deliver price stability. The commitment to deliver is strong, unanimous, and unambiguous. And that’s an important message we’ve missed for five years. And we’re going to fix that.” - Kevin Warsh

That sounds like a Fed far more focused on crushing inflation than on cutting rates. The bond market heard Warsh’s message loud and clear. The 2 YR Treasury yield jumped ~16 bps to 4.21%, its highest level in over a year, and the dollar had its best day in almost a year. That is the fixed income market repricing a higher for longer scenario.

The equity markets reversed hard off highs and sold off into the close. As I always say, it is not the news that matters. It is the market’s reaction to the news. And today, the market did not like Warsh’s first FOMC meeting.

The Leaders Are Mixed

On Sunday, I said we would find out whether the leaders could carry us back to new highs.

Right now, the action in those leaders is mixed at best. 👇

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The Nasdaq pulled back ~8% from its highs over the past ~2 weeks.

After the insane run we have had, that is a perfectly normal pullback (healthy, even).

Then came the big bounce late last week. Thursday’s rally kicked off on news that the US had called off its planned strikes on Iran, and the buying carried right through Friday. The SPX tested its 60 EMA for the first time since this uptrend began, and dip buyers stepped right in. By Friday’s close, the SPX was already back above its 21 EMA.

I made my views on this pullback clear last Wednesday. 👇

I said this was a normal pullback, not a top.

Now look at where we are. The SPX bounced off its 60 EMA (my downside target), and has already reclaimed its 21 EMA.

So where do we stand now, and what am I doing about it?

Here is exactly what I'm holding, and why these dips have me more interested, not less. 👇

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Wednesday was another ugly day for US stocks.

The S&P 500 fell -1.6%, the Nasdaq dropped -2%, and the Russell 2000 declined -1.1%. The VIX jumped +12% to ~22.

This morning’s CPI was the big Macro event, and on the surface it was better than expected. Headline inflation came in at +4.2% YoY (a 3 yr high, but in-line with expectations), and Core actually came in soft at +0.2% on the month (below the +0.3% estimate).

A soft Core print is normally exactly what the market wants. But we couldn’t hold it. The market opened lower, tried to rally green, and faded right back to the lows.

There is a lot of anxiety about 2 events sitting directly ahead, Friday’s SpaceX IPO and next week’s Fed meeting.

But here is the #1 most important thing for everyone to know right now. 👇

The Environment Has Shifted

The market environment has clearly changed. That is my single biggest takeaway from this week, and it is the lens I am viewing everything through.

In “The Critical Week” on Sunday, I laid out 2 scenarios and the exact levels that would decide which one we got. 👇

The bullish path was a quick 1 or 2 day shakeout, where the SPX and QQQ reclaim their 21 EMAs quickly and the VIX gets knocked back below 20.

The bearish path was a break of key support and the start of a more corrective period.

We did not reclaim the 21 EMAs. We did not hold key support.

So it appears we are following the more bearish scenario here. We prepared for this scenario on Sunday, and we had a plan ready for it.

The QQQ is now ~7.4% off ATHs, with my target sitting at its 60 EMA (another -2.3% lower).

The SPX is almost at its 60 EMA already.

The support levels I talked about heading into the week have not held, so I am staying cautious.

So what comes next, and how am I handling it?

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