Bounce or Bottom?

My first downside target just hit, then we ripped higher. Here's whether I think we bottomed or not...

Marlin Capital Readers,

After 2 weeks of getting run over, buyers finally showed up today.

And they showed up in a big way‼️

US stocks ripped higher on Thursday. The Nasdaq surged +2.8%, its best day since June, snapping a 6-day losing streak. The S&P 500 gained +1.7%.

But the real fireworks were in the exact part of the market that’s been beaten down the most. Semis and AI.

Semis exploded, with the SOX up +8.2%. Micron ripped +18%. AMD and Intel both jumped +13%. And the Momentum trade, which had been left for dead (down -42% from highs), came roaring back to life today.

Microsoft was the engine, up +16% after a blowout Azure quarter (more on that later).

So after a brutal drawdown, buyers finally stepped in.

And now everyone is asking the same question. 👇

Did we just bottom?

We Gave You the Key Level

Before I give you my take, let’s talk about how we got here.

On July 7th, with the SOX trading at ~$12.3k, I called for a -14% downside move to $10.6k. That was my first key support level, and my first downside target.

It wasn’t a random number. $10.6k was the middle of the weekly Bollinger Band, and it’s the same support level we bottomed from during the October 2025 and March 2026 corrections.

The SOX closed yesterday at $10,447, slicing right through the floor of my key support level. That’s a move of more than -14% from my call, and it actually overshot my downside target to the low side.

We gave you the key support level to watch. Now the SOX has tagged it, overshot it, and bounced violently back above it.

So there is 1 question at the top of everyone’s mind tonight. 👇

Did we just bottom?

We already know what the crowd who’s been calling the bottom every day for the last month is going to say.

But that’s not me. Here’s my balanced take. 👇