The US stock market is little changed so far today after the morning gap up was faded. Headline focus continues to be on Middle East tensions after President Trump disclosed that he will decide within the next 2 weeks whether to strike Iran.
Polymarket now implies a 42% chance of US military action in Iran before July, down from 60-70% earlier in the week following Karoline Leavitt’s comments.
Source: Polymarket
This is perhaps the best gauge of the current mood as markets remain on high alert and rangebound.
OpEx today - Goldman Prime estimates that over $5.9T of notional options exposure will expire today, including $4.0T of SPX options and $925B of single stock options. This options expiration will be the largest June expiration on record.
