The Bear is Back

The New Bull Market narrative is not holding up. Detailed analysis below...

The initial wave of the Bear Market (The “Covid Bubble Bust”), which I began writing about in late 2021, was triggered by an interest rate shock.  During this period, it became clear that inflation was becoming a major crisis (i.e. not transitory) and the Fed had to play catch up with policy.

Since the October 2022 Bear Market lows, the stock market has experienced a noteworthy rally, with key indices bouncing as much as 40% off lows. This resurgence was underpinned by a more resilient economy and labor market than most expected.  Earnings have remained steadfast, defying the concerns of a weakening economy as leading indicators suggested.

However, the action in stocks/”New Bull Market” narrative was highly questionable.  In fact, this would mark the weakest Year 1 performance of a New Bull Market in over 4+ decades, raising concerns about the market's breadth and the sustainability of the market rally.