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Marlin Capital
Marlin Capital
The Path Forward

The Path Forward

Will the Middle East conflict derail the 2025 Bull Run? Detailed analysis below...

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David Marlin
Jun 16, 2025
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Marlin Capital
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The Path Forward
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Conflict in the Middle East

The Israel/Iran escalation brings into focus the playbook for geopolitical shocks, which historically entails sharp equity selloffs but also surprisingly quick recoveries. In the past, the market has often rallied back from the initial geopolitical shock without any clear signs of de-escalation.

The historical pattern is for the S&P 500 to pull back about -3-6% in 3 weeks, but then rally all the way back in another 3 weeks. 2 recent examples that followed this pattern in textbook fashion were the Russia attack on Ukraine in early 2022 and the Hamas attack on Israel in October 2023.

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