In “The Big Unwind”, I talked about how I believe the current “US growth scare” headlines will start to dominate the newsflow, and that was certainly the case today. The Atlanta Fed just revised their Q1 2025 GDP growth estimate lower once again, from -1.5% just last Friday to -2.8% today.
In just the last 4 weeks, the Atlanta Fed’s Q1 GDP estimate has dropped from +3.9% to -2.8%. This is an unprecedented revision lower.
A -2.8% GDP would obviously be the beginning of a recessionary number (need 2 consecutive qtrs for recession) and would be the US economy’s worst GDP reading since the heart of the Covid Pandemic (Q2 2020; -29.9%).
